DynaNets

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Reference Details
Bajardi, P., Poletto, C., Ramasco, JJ., Tizzoni, M. and Colizza, V. (2011), "Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.".

Abstract:
After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.

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Highlights

This article is 'Highly accessed'  (total accesses to this article since publication: 1197) relative to age  in  BioMed Central:
Increasing risk behaviour can outweigh the benefits of antiretroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam
Shan Mei, Rick Quax, David VAN de Vijver, Yifan Zhu and P.m.a. Sloot BMC Infectious Diseases, 11:118   (11 May 2011)

As of August 27, the most downloaded/accessed paper in BMC Systems Biology is: D. van Dijk et al.: Identifying potential survival strategies of HIV-1 through virus-host protein interaction networks, BMC Systems Biology, vol. 4, nr 1 pp. 96+17. 2010.

This paper received the ICCS best paper award 2010:
N. Zarrabi et al.: Modeling HIV-1 intracellular replication,
Procedia Computer Science vol. 1, nr 1 pp. 555-564. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, May 2010.

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EU
EU Grant Agreement Number: 233847
 

BONUS Grant Number: OMFB-00237/2010

 
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